CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2023 Aug 02 1254 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30802
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Aug 2023, 1253UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2023  10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2023  10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2023  10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was moderate
during the last 24 hours, with four M-class flares, all produced by NOAA
Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.4
flares which peaked at 14:09 UTC today. During the flare, the source region
(AR 3380) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric
magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C3 to C9 were also
produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced
NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting
several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR
3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Coronal mass ejections: Type IV solar radio burst occurred on Aug 02 around
08:00 UTC. This radio burst was associated with the M-class flare from
NOAA-AR 3380, located near to the west limb. This has been associate with a
coronal mass ejection potentially with an Earth directed component. Future
analysis is ongoing to estimated the speed and potentially the arrival time
to Earth as well as the impact. No other Earth directed component of
Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available
coronograph imagery.

Coronal holes: An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole has reached
the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is
expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Solar wind: Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging
from 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -8
and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 3 nT to 12 nT.
This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was
observed on 29 Jul. The solar wind speed may increase if any remnants from
those CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours. Solar wind enhancements
may occur tomorrow due to the fast solar wind from the coronal which
crossed the central meridian on Aug 01.

Geomagnetism: During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
unsettled. NOAA reported Kp 1 to 3 and K BEL reported 4 for a shorter
intervals. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which
was observed on 29 Jul. The geomagnetic condition may increase to unsettled
or active conditions if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the
coming 24 hours.


Proton flux levels: The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in
the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16
satellite, reached above the threshold level at 14:00 and dropped below the
17:40 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at
normal level. It is that this parameter to remain below the threshold level
in the coming 24 hours.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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